We’re really excited to be partnering with Kleros and reality.eth for crowdsourced event resolution. Kleros has developed a technology for verification of market validity, whereby malformed/subjective prediction markets are detected and invalidated. We’re planning to use their tech in the future!
Crowdsourced Event Resolution
The following process is done via reality.eth (https://reality.eth.link/) using POLK as the bond currency:
- After the event resolution date has elapsed, people will be able to place bonds — let’s call them answers — on the outcome which they believe is the correct one.
- Answers can be challenged via the posting of another answer and a higher bond.
- A timeout period is started after an answer is placed. After that timeout expires with no challenges, that final unchallenged answer is accepted as the correct one.
- Correct answers receive their bond back, plus the reward, and incorrect answers lose their bond.
Arbitration can still be requested to dispute an accepted answer. The arbitrator will be Kleros Court: (https://kleros.io/)
- Once arbitration is requested by paying an arbitration fee, a set of jurors will be randomly drawn and will vote on the correct outcome for the challenged market.
- The event resolution is locked while jurors rule on the case and, in the end, Kleros contracts will send a final answer to the reality.eth and Polkamarkets smart contracts, releasing the bond and reward for the correct answers.
- There is a possibility to appeal a first ruling to ask for another round of voting with n+1 jurors.
- The arbitration fee will be ETH/DOT on a first instance, for simplicity’s sake. Arbitration is usually a last resort, as the arbitration fee is traditionally higher than the bonds and is not returned to users.
- Crowdsourced market resolution through reality.eth should resolve the market with the correct outcome in the large majority of cases. Existing prediction markets that use a similar approach only have had 2 very divisive cases that went to arbitration so far.
“Polkamarkets’ partnership with Kleros represents an important step towards the full decentralisation of our prediction markets. One of the greatest challenges that prediction market platforms face is having reliable, trustworthy and decentralised event resolution. With Kleros, Polkamarkets is able to offer markets in a wide variety of genres across diverse premises, and ensure our users that the markets are well-formed and resolve clearly. We are excited to see how Kleros’ technology can further our mission of delivering decentralised prediction markets to the masses.” — Ricardo Marques, Co-Founder of Polkamarkets.
“Cooperative Kleros has always been a fervent supporter of the decentralized prediction market space. Polkamarkets, with its liquidity mining, has a good chance of solving the chicken and the egg problem of liquidity/trading required to unlock efficient prediction markets. The integration of Kleros arbitration protocol with Polkamarkets will ensure transparent and unbiased event resolution for all its markets.” — Federico Ast, Cooperative Kleros President.
Kleros is an Ethereum based autonomous organization that works as a decentralized third party to arbitrate disputes. It relies on game-theoretic incentives to have jurors rule cases correctly. The result is a dispute resolution system that renders ultimate judgments enforced by smart contracts in a fast, inexpensive, transparent, and decentralized way.
Crowd-sourced verification for smart contracts. Reality.eth provides a flexible mechanism for verifying real-world events for smart contracts.
Polkamarkets is an Autonomous Prediction Market Protocol built for cross-chain information exchange and trading where users take positions on outcomes of real-world events–in a decentralized and interoperable platform based on Polkadot.